Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
Estimate sustainable annual withdrawals from a retirement portfolio across the standard 3% to 4.5% safe withdrawal rate band.
Enter your portfolio value and a base SWR. The sensitivity table shows annual income at 3%, 3.5%, 4%, and 4.5%.
| Rate | Annual | Monthly |
|---|
How is this calculated?
Annual withdrawal = portfolio × (rate / 100). The 4% rule (Bengen, 1994; Trinity Study, 1998) tests historical 30-year retirement success rates. Lower rates (3% to 3.5%) suit longer horizons or conservative assumptions; 4.5% suits shorter retirements.
About this tool
The Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator turns a portfolio balance and a target rate into a year-one withdrawal, a monthly figure, and a sensitivity table across the 3 percent to 4.5 percent band.
How it works
Annual withdrawal = Portfolio value x (SWR / 100) Monthly withdrawal = Annual withdrawal / 12 Implied corpus multiple = 100 / SWR
- Portfolio value = total invested assets at retirement, in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars.
- SWR = the safe withdrawal rate as a percentage. 4 percent is the Trinity Study baseline for a 30-year retirement.
- Year-one rule = you withdraw this dollar amount in year one and then increase it with inflation each subsequent year, not a flat percentage of the current balance.
- Implied corpus multiple = the inverse of the rate, so 4 percent gives 25x, 3.5 percent gives ~28.6x, and 3 percent gives ~33.3x.
Worked example
Take a $1,000,000 portfolio and the textbook 4 percent rate:
- Portfolio value: $1,000,000 invested in a 70/30 global stock/bond mix.
- Base SWR: 4 percent.
- Annual withdrawal: $1,000,000 x 0.04 = $40,000 in year one (gross, before tax).
- Monthly withdrawal: $40,000 / 12 = $3,333 per month.
- Implied corpus multiple: 100 / 4 = 25x. Confirms the textbook 25 times annual expenses rule.
- Year-two onward: raise the $40,000 by realised inflation (e.g., $40,000 x 1.03 = $41,200 if CPI prints 3 percent), do not recompute against the new balance.
Safe withdrawal rate by retirement length
The Trinity Study tested 30-year retirements. Modern research from Morningstar and Wade Pfau adjusts the rate for longer horizons:
| Retirement length | Suggested SWR | Corpus multiple | Income per $1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 5.0% | 20x | $50,000 |
| 25 years | 4.5% | 22.2x | $45,000 |
| 30 years (Trinity) | 4.0% | 25x | $40,000 |
| 40 years (FIRE at 50) | 3.5% | 28.6x | $35,000 |
| 50 years (FIRE at 40) | 3.25% | 30.8x | $32,500 |
| 60 years (FIRE at 30) | 3.0% | 33.3x | $30,000 |
| Perpetual (endowment) | 2.75% | 36.4x | $27,500 |
Common mistakes
- Confusing year-one rule with constant percentage. The 4 percent rule withdraws 4 percent in year one and inflation-adjusts the dollar amount thereafter, NOT 4 percent of the current balance every year.
- Ignoring taxes. $40,000 from a traditional 401(k) is ordinary income; from a brokerage it is mostly capital gains; from a Roth it is tax-free. Budget after-tax and gross up.
- Using 4 percent for a 50-year retirement. The Trinity Study only validated 30 years. For early retirees, 3.25 to 3.5 percent is the modern consensus.
- Ignoring sequence-of-returns risk. A 30 percent drawdown in year one is far more damaging than the same drop in year 20. Hold a cash or short-bond buffer of 1 to 3 years.
- Forgetting healthcare. ACA subsidies cushion US early retirees, but a serious medical event still bypasses the textbook math.
- Anchoring on nominal returns. The 4 percent rule assumes 5 to 7 percent real returns. Run sensitivities on real numbers, not nominal.
Related calculators and glossary
Frequently asked questions
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
A safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is the percentage of a retirement portfolio you can withdraw in year one, then increase with inflation each year, while keeping a high probability of not running out of money over a target horizon. The textbook number is 4 percent for a 30-year retirement, based on the 1998 Trinity Study and William Bengen's 1994 paper using historical US stock and bond returns.
Why do FIRE planners use 3.25 to 3.5 percent instead of 4 percent?
The original 4 percent rule was tested on 30-year retirements. Someone retiring at 40 or 45 needs the portfolio to survive 45 to 60 years, which is a different problem. Morningstar's 2024 research and Wade Pfau's work both suggest 3.25 to 3.5 percent gives a similar success probability over those longer horizons, especially in today's lower expected-return environment.
Does the 4 percent rule include taxes?
No. The 4 percent figure is a gross withdrawal from the portfolio, not spendable cash. If your portfolio is in a taxable brokerage account or a traditional 401(k) and IRA, you owe ordinary income or capital-gains tax on the withdrawal. Roth withdrawals are tax-free. Plan your real spending budget on after-tax dollars and gross up the withdrawal rate accordingly.
What is sequence-of-returns risk and how do I protect against it?
Sequence-of-returns risk is the danger that poor market returns in the first 5 to 10 retirement years permanently shrink the portfolio because you are withdrawing while it falls. Mitigations include holding 1 to 3 years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds, using a variable-percentage withdrawal rule that cuts spending in bad years, or earning part-time income early in retirement to reduce withdrawals.
How does Social Security change the SWR math?
Subtract expected Social Security from your annual spending need before applying the SWR. If you need $60,000 a year and Social Security covers $24,000 at 67, the portfolio only has to fund $36,000. Pre-67, you withdraw against a higher gap and step down the dollar amount once benefits begin.
Does the 2026 high-rate environment change the 4 percent rule?
Higher bond yields actually help. Morningstar's 2024 update raised the starting SWR for 30-year retirements to 4.0 percent (up from 3.8 percent in 2022) because expected real returns on bonds improved. The recommendation still cuts to 3.3 to 3.5 percent for 40 to 50 year retirements.
Sources and further reading
- Bengen, William P. (1994) Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data, Journal of Financial Planning - the original 4 percent paper.
- Cooley, Hubbard and Walz (1998) Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable, Trinity University - the "Trinity Study".
- Morningstar (2024) The State of Retirement Income - updated SWR analysis for 30+ year horizons.
- Pfau, Wade (2022) Retirement Planning Guidebook - safe-withdrawal-rate research for longer retirements.